Who will replace Trudeau as Canada’s Liberal party leader? 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he will resign in the coming months after nine years in power, bowing to legislators alarmed by his Liberal Party’s miserable pre-election polling numbers.

Trudeau, the 53-year-old son of Pierre Trudeau, one of Canada’s most famous prime ministers, became deeply unpopular with voters over a range of issues, including the soaring cost of food and housing, as well as surging immigration.

He also was unable to recover after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, long one of his most powerful and loyal ministers, resigned from the Cabinet last month.

Trudeau said on Monday he would stay on both as prime minister and Liberal head until the party chooses a new leader to take it into the next election, which must be held by late October this year.

The Liberals need to elect a new leader before Parliament resumes on March 24 because all three opposition parties said they plan to use a no-confidence vote against the Liberal party at the first opportunity, which would trigger an election. The new leader might not be prime minister for long.

Here’s a look at some of the politicians who could replace Trudeau.

Chrystia Freeland

Freeland, a member of parliament for Toronto, is considered to be the early frontrunner for Trudeau’s replacement. She is regarded as a credible and stable alternative to Trudeau, and in polls, she fares the best among Liberal politicians before elections.

A former journalist, Freeland worked for the Financial Times, the Globe and Mail, and Thomson Reuters. She marked her transition from journalism to politics in 2013, winning a by-election in Toronto’s University-Rosedale riding as a Liberal candidate.

During her time as Canada’s finance minister – the first woman to ever hold the position – Freeland played a central role in negotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Trudeau told Freeland last month he no longer wanted her to serve as finance minister but that she could remain deputy prime minister and the point person for US-Canada relations.

An official close to Freeland told the Associated Press news agency that Freeland could not continue serving as a minister knowing she no longer enjoyed Trudeau’s confidence. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak publicly on the matter, added that Freeland would talk to her colleagues this week and discuss next steps.

Among her reasons for stepping down, Freeland said she disagreed with Trudeau over how to respond to Trump’s threat to impose a 25-percent tariff on Canadian goods.

After she resigned, Trump called Freeland “totally toxic” and “not at all conducive to making deals”.

Freeland, 56, sits on the board of the World Economic Forum (WEF), which has been the target of far-right conspiracy theories claiming that the WEF has sinister goals of manipulating global policies.

She is also of Ukrainian heritage and has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine in its war against Russia – while Trump has indicated that he wants the US to rethink its approach to the war.

Mark Carney

An economist and banker who served as former governor of the Bank of Canada, he has been advising the Liberal government on economic matters.

Carney, 59, rose to prominence in 2012 when he was named the first foreigner to serve as governor of the Bank of England since it was founded in 1694. The appointment of a Canadian won bipartisan praise in the United Kingdom after Canada recovered faster than many other countries from the 2008 financial crisis. He gained a reputation along the way as a tough regulator.

A highly educated economist with Wall Street experience, Carney is widely credited with helping Canada dodge the worst of the 2008 global economic crisis and helping the UK manage Brexit.

Carney has long been interested in entering politics and becoming prime minister but lacks political experience. Tradition dictates that Carney, currently chair of Brookfield Asset Management, would need to secure a seat in parliament to take office if he won the party leadership.

Dominic LeBlanc

Seen as a close ally of Trudeau, LeBlanc was appointed finance minister after Freeland’s departure.

A Canadian politician and lawyer, he is also a member of parliament representing Beausejour in New Brunswick, a position he has held since 2000.

He served as the minister of fisheries, oceans, and the Canadian Coast Guard from 2016 to 2018, and as the minister of intergovernmental affairs, northern affairs, and internal trade from 2018 to 2019. Before taking over as finance minister, he was the minister of intergovernmental affairs starting in 2020.

LeBlanc, 57, recently joined the prime minister at a dinner with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, the US president-elect’s Florida estate. LeBlanc’s office said in a statement ahead of the trip that they would highlight “the negative impacts that the imposition of 25-percent tariffs on Canadian goods would have on both Canada and the United States”.

LeBlanc was Trudeau’s babysitter when Trudeau was a child and praised the prime minister after his resignation announcement.

“Serving alongside you in the House of Commons and in your Cabinet has been the honour of a lifetime,” he said on X.

Melanie Joly

The current minister of foreign affairs, Joly has been prominent on the international stage and will be tasked with handling Trump-related issues when he takes office.

Joly, 45, has been a staunch supporter of Trudeau and also joined him during his trip to Mar-a-Lago to meet Trump.

Before becoming minister of foreign affairs, Joly served as the minister of Canadian heritage from 2015 to 2018; minister of tourism, official languages, and la Francophonie from 2018 to 2019; and minister of economic development from 2019 to 2021.

In March 2024, Palestinian Canadians and human rights lawyers sued Joly over exports of military equipment to Israel, which they argued violated Canada’s obligations under domestic and international law.

The lawsuit asked a federal court to order the Canadian government to stop issuing export permits for military goods and technology destined for Israel. There have been no public updates on the case since it was filed.

Francois-Philippe Champagne

Champagne, 54, has been the minister of innovation, science and industry since 2021. Before that, Champagne held several key ministerial roles. He was the minister of international Trade from 2017 to 2018; the minister of infrastructure and communities from 2018 to 2019; and the minister of foreign affairs from 2019 to 2021.

In December, Champagne issued a warning to Trump that his proposed tariffs could spark a trade war between the countries that would benefit China.

“If you say no to Canada, you’re basically saying yes to China when it comes to strategic supply chains,” Champagne said on the POLITICO Tech podcast. “I don’t think that’s what the American people would want.”

Champagne pointed out during the podcast that the future of Canada and the US are tightly joined by the fact that they are among each other’s largest trading partners and share common goals.

Would a new leader help the Liberals avoid defeat?

Polls strongly indicate that the Liberals will lose the election, no matter who the leader is. But the scale of the defeat could be tempered if Trudeau is not in charge.

In the latest poll by Nanos, a Canadian polling firm, the Liberals trail the opposition Conservatives 47 percent to 21 percent.

“Trudeau’s announcement might help the Liberals in the polls in the short run and, once a new leader is selected, things could improve further at least for a little while but that would not be so hard because, right now, they’re so low in the polls,” said Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal.

“Moreover, because Trudeau waited so long to announce his resignation, this will leave little time to his successor and the party to prepare for early elections,” Beland told The AP.

Many analysts believe Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will form the next government. Poilievre, for years the party’s go-to attack dog, is a firebrand populist who blamed Canada’s cost of living crisis on Trudeau.

The 45-year-old Poilievre is a career politician who attracted large crowds during his run for his party’s leadership. He has promised to scrap a carbon tax and defund the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.